The Future of U.S. Foreign Economic Assistance

International Relations/Trade,

Military R&D: the productivity puzzle

A number of very careful econometric studies have been interpreted as showing that publicly funded research and development conducted by private firms has had little discernable impact on firm level profits or productivity. In contrast historical studies have shown that military and defense-related research development and procurement conducted by private firms has been an important source of technology development across a broad spectrum of U.S. manufacturing industries. Careful narrative analysis represents a more effective way of capturing the complementarities between military and defense-related research, development, and procurement on commercial technology development than econometric analysis.Political Economy, Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Military Procurement and Technology Development

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that military and defense related research and procurement have been a major source of commercial technology development across a broad spectrum of industries that account for an important share of United States industrial production. I discuss the development of five general purpose technologies: (1) military and commercial aircraft, (2) nuclear energy and electric power, (3) computers and semiconductors, (4) the Internet, and (5) the space industries. The defense industrial base has become a smaller share of the industrial sector which is itself a declining sector in the U.S. economy. It is doubtful that military and defense related procurement will again become an important source of new general purpose technologies. When the history of U.S. technology development for the next half century is eventually written it will almost certainly be written within the context of slower productivity growth than the relatively high rates that prevailed in the U.S through the 1960's and during the information technology bubble that began in the early 1990's.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF RESEARCH

For almost half a century World War II and the Cold War provided the political and fiscal context for public investment in science and technology. The report prepared by Vannevar Bush, Science: the Endless Frontier (1945), advanced an investment rationale for federal support of scientific research. In spite of pressure from Congress and the Office of the President the scientific community has resisted the development and application of operational economic criteria for the allocation of research resources.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Agricultural, Environmental and Health Research in a Global Environment

Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

Agricultural economics is a field of applied economics. Its scope and its relationship to other social and natural science disciplines has changed over time in response to (a) the social, economic and technical changes impinging on the agricultural sector and (b) progress in economic theory and in other related social and natural science disciplines. The substance of agricultural economics in the United States at the present time can best be understood by reviewing the historical origins of the field and its recent evolution in relation to developments in economic theory, statistics and econometrics.Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

The Asia Bureau Agricultural Research Review

Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

QUANTIFYING AND MANAGING RISK IN AGRICULTURE

Risk and Uncertainty,

Is War Necessary for Economic Growth? Military Procurement and Technology Development

New radical general purpose technologies have been the drivers of economic growth in the United States economy in recent economic history. In this paper I review the role of military and defense related research, technology development, and procurement in the development of the aircraft, nuclear power, computer, semiconductor, internet and the space communication and earth observing industries. The development of each of these industries would have been substantially delayed in the absence of support for research, technology development and procurement by the military and defense related agencies. Rates of productivity and output growth would have been substantially slower. By the early 1990's it was becoming clear that changes in the United States economy, of the defense industrial base, and in United States military and defense strategy meant that the defense and defense related industries would no longer play a prominent role in the development of new general purpose technologies. There has been a relative decline in investment in basic research and in early stage technology development in the private sector. The United States has yet to develop a coherent strategy for the public support of commercial technology development. My own sense is that when the history of United States technology development for the next half century is eventually written it will be characterized by incremental rather than revolutionary changes in both military and commercial technology. It will also be written in the context of slower productivity and output growth than the rates that prevailed in the United States during the first several post war decades or since the beginning of the information technology bubble that began in the early 1990s.International Development, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Why Foreign Economic Assistance?

International Development,